OurWorldInData – Pongora

The world population has changed dramatically over the last few centuries. Let’s examine long-run population data to understand this change and how quickly the world’s population is growing today.

The global population growth rate peaked long ago. The chart shows that global population growth peaked in 1962 and 1963 with an annual growth rate of 2.2%; however, since then, world population growth has halved.

For the last half-century, the population growth rate has been declining. The UN projects that this decline will continue in the coming decades.

A common question we’re asked is: is the global population growing exponentially? The answer is no.

Population growth is determined by births and deaths. Every country has seen very substantial changes in both: mortality and fertility rates have fallen across the world.

However, declining mortality rates and declining fertility rates alone do not explain why populations grow. If these changes happened at the same time, the size of the population would not increase. What is crucial is the timing at which mortality and fertility change.

The model that explains why countries go through a period of rapid population growth is called the ‘demographic transition’. It is shown in the schematic figure. It is a beautifully simple model that describes the observed pattern in countries worldwide and is one of the great insights of demography.

Source 1: https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth-over-time
Source 2: https://ourworldindata.org/demographic-transition

CO2 emissions are typically measured on the basis of ‘production’. This accounting method – which is sometimes referred to as ‘territorial’ emissions – is used when countries report their emissions, and set targets domestically and internationally.

In addition to the commonly reported territorial emissions statisticians also calculate ‘consumption-based’ emissions. These emissions are adjusted for trade. To calculate consumption-based emissions we need to track which goods are traded across the world, and whenever a good was imported we need to include all CO2 emissions that were emitted in the production of that good, and vice versa to subtract all CO2 emissions that were emitted in the production of goods that were exported.

Consumption-based emissions reflect the consumption and lifestyle choices of a country’s citizens.

The following chart compare CO2 emissions with GDP per capita. As the GDP is based on the country production, this data compare territorial production (GDP) with territorial emissions, meaning the emissions produced within a country’s borders, but not those from imported goods. For example, emissions from imported steel are counted in the country where the steel is produced.

Source 1 : https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2
Source 2 : https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-emissions-vs-gdp

Tag: OurWorldInData

World Population Growth | OurWorldInData.org

Life Expectancy vs GDP per capita | OurWorldInData.org

CO2 Emissions per Capita | OurWorldInData.org